Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
